Tinubu Government Economic Agenda and a Nigerian Blue Economy

Alfe City    June 09, 2024

The keyword in the next government’s economic agenda must be – dynamic. It must be bold, it must be transparent, demonstrable enough to be believable to give hope to a traumatized population. It must inspire hope that has been conspicuously absent even despite the election in a people that cannot see a future for themselves and their children.

These are some of the challenges confronting the next government – intractable and complex; as a whole it is the economy, in parts it’s the absence of security, the state of public infrastructure, unemployment, productivity, the failure of the education system, concentration of power at the Centre, cost of governance and lack of trust and transparency in public institutions. Due to decades of endemic neglect, painful collapse of the hinges of public institutions and in effect the state, these challenges are urgent and existential.

The next government must deal with the long running debate of national security architecture. Each state must be responsible for the internal security of their state with each having a police supervisory board made up of appointed citizens with term limit. This arrangement does not preclude the necessity of a federal security agency that would work to support the state police if and when necessary. Furthermore, apart from the low level crimes committed by individuals and criminals routinely expected to be dealt with by the police there are two hot spots within the Nigeria federation that are major security concern that have been going on for years – in the North East and the South East. The former could end as soon as the military are able to defeat the bandit perpetrating it. In the other hand, the situation in the South East is a deliberate concerted effort by certain groups within and outside the country to undermine the integrity of the country that is being done through civil disobedience, criminal destruction of public property, killing, kidnapping and banditry. The next government must find a solution to this as it directly affects the image of the country and economic well being of the innocent citizens in the area. The presidential candidate of the Labour Party Mr. Peter Obi with the almost total mandate of the people of the region could be uniquely useful here with the understanding that practical devolution of some of the power currently monopolized in Abuja could be a catalyst for resolving long standing grievances here for the benefit of the entirety.

Campaign for devolution of power across the federation has been a staple of politicians since 1963 with the Constitution allowing limited authority for the unit states to make decisions that could positively affect the lives of their citizens. This must change in a manner that will allow clusters of states acting with the primary objective of economic integration in a region operate an economic community with economic cooperation that could facilitate joint investments in public infrastructure like roads, rails and more sustainable management of the environment. It’s for example understandable why the federal government should construct a east west road (Lagos – Calabar) but it’s less clear a road between Akure in Ondo State and Ado Ekiti in Ekiti State as in so many similar places should be a federal assignment.

The next government must confront the issue of education in Nigeria and demonstrate it is aware of the IMPORTANCE of education from the primary school level to the university. There must be an enforced national standard to ensure the school system is able to produce the workforce needed for economic growth and productivity. Until recently, it was my belief the disproportionate inability of the northern part of the country to contribute to the graduate working population was a religious issue until I got to know what the United Arab Emirates have accomplished in technological breakthrough and scientific research. This is despite their more strict sharia interpretation of Islam. What is happening in the Northern part of the country is a crime. There is no reason not to enforce a national standard and urgently consider adopting either the South Korean or German Educational system that could help transform our educational and technological advancement within a very short time. 

Power has been the bane of the Nigerian state for as long as memory would serve and continue to be a scourge to businesses, life itself and way of of life. In recent past there was the failed effort to privatize what till then was one of the few avenues government could ameliorate the cost of living of the people. The process has been an unmitigated disaster. The next government should terminate the existing arrangement and reconstitute the national power distribution authority NEPA. It should specifically invite technical partnership from the Scandinavian countries or South Korea. It should through a special purpose vehicle arrange for Issuance of bond to raise the capital it would require to build a state of the art power generation and distribution company that could then be sold to the public at a later date.

The next government must also deal with the issue of transparency and accountability in government. The culture of the government as a legalized criminal enterprise must stop. This in turn leads to the issue of cost of governance. Does the country actually need a bicameral legislatures and is there really a need for full time law makers? In the face of ever dwindling resources the secrecy surrounding the salaries, constituency allocations and benefits of members of legislatures at both the states and national level is an affront to decency. The next government must see this as a priority by bringing transparency to government while tackling these related issues.

There is unfortunately a paucity of reliable data to sufficiently analyze the state of the Nigeria economy except for the currency the Naira which mirrors the rampaging menace of inflation over many years through successive government economic somersaults. However, a population of a quarter of a billion people offer the new government the enormous market that with good planning and monitoring necessary for sustained economic stability could transform the fortune of this country. With all that is wrong with the Nigeria economy the realization of absence of stability at the Centre of the country’s monetary system is sad to say the least as exposed by the recent calamitous attempt to introduce new Naira notes. The episode is of an organization without responsible management structure. For a lot time, I have always felt a necessity for engagement of some of the world’s retired, renowned expatriate experts as in-house specialists in some of our critical institutions to help with procedures, professionalism, ethics – the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Supreme Court, the Nigeria Police Headquarters are prime candidates. These distinguished individuals would be observers offering opinions on due process, ethical issues for a period of up to ten years as the case may be until they are needed no more and we are able to run the ship.

The administration of the Central Bank of Nigeria as a matter of urgency must be revamped to meet the challenges of the time. Over the last few decades it has demonstrated absolute incompetence on issues of micro economic decisions and contributed in no small measure to the state of the country today. A collegiate executive board with voting power needs to be introduced with term limit with more transparency decision making process. This is a clear way to improve the regulatory environment in order to increase the level of foreign investment in the economy. 

Finally, the next government must embrace a Nigerian Blue as a vehicle for comprehensive solutions to issues of unemployment, infrastructural development sustainability of the environment, renewable energy and sufficiency.

Unfortunately, the outgoing administration made a rather late entry into the conversation with the constitution of the Expanded Partnership Committee on Blue Economy in Nigeria under the Chairmanship of the Vice President early last year that would now need to be reinvigorated by the next government. A Nigerian Blue Economy is projected by experts to exponentially quadruple the GDP in the medium term four fold from the current 407 billion dollar to 1.5 trillion USD. From construction of new ports along the Atlantic Ocean coastline, shipping, ship building, modern fishing, aquaculture, Oyster farming, ocean mining, biotechnology, and coastal tourism. A Nigeria Blue Economy would generate millions of employment, create new entrepreneurs and provide the platform for an integrated transportation infrastructure from the coast inward. And would be funded with special purpose vehicle only the incorporation of a Nigerian Blue Economy can permit.

Soji Adeleye

soji.adeleye@hotmail.com